Severe drought and associated food insecurity, flooding, rains, and temperature rises due to El Niño are causing a wide range of health problems, including disease outbreaks, malnutrition, heat stress and respiratory diseases.

This week they said their model — which uses an algorithm that draws on analysis of links between changing air temperatures at a network of grid points across the Pacific region — could predict an El Nino at least a year ahead. …

Despite major advancements, scientists cannot predict events more than 1 year away, even though the physical precursors to El Niño and La Niña, such as shifting ocean temperatures, may occur more than a year in advance. Many state-of-the-art forecasting models use mathematical equations to power their predictions.

Yes, scientists can often predict the onset of El Niño and La Niña several months to a year in advance, thanks to modern climate models and observations data (which includes sensors on satellites and ocean buoys), which constantly monitors changing conditions in the ocean and atmosphere.

El Niño and La Niña have their strongest impact on global climate during the Northern Hemisphere winter & early spring. However, parts of the tropics and Southern Hemisphere sub-tropics feel the effects of ENSO during Northern Hemisphere summer months of June to August.

El Nino causes the Pacific jet stream to move south and spread further east. During winter, this leads to wetter conditions than usual in the Southern U.S. and warmer and drier conditions in the North. El Nino also has a strong effect on marine life off the Pacific coast.

By influencing global temperatures and precipitation, the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) significantly impacts Earth’s ecosystems and human societies. El Niño and La Niña are opposite extremes of the ENSO, which refers to cyclical environmental conditions that occur across the Equatorial Pacific Ocean.

The worst-affected regions are parts of southern Africa, the Sahel, western Africa, Australia, western United States and parts of South America, as the map below shows. In El Niño years, 10 per cent of the globe sees higher than normal damages, while 19 per cent sees lower than normal.

Within the United States, the impacts generally observed during the six-month period include; wetter-than-average conditions along the Gulf Coast between Texas and Florida, while drier conditions are observed in Hawaii, the Ohio Valley, Pacific Northwest and the Rocky Mountains.

The term El Niño (Spanish for ‘the Christ Child’) refers to a warming of the ocean surface (or above-average sea surface temperatures) in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. El Niño events can disrupt normal weather patterns in the United States and globally. …

Preparing Your Property for El Niño

1. Evaluate your Property.
2. Protect Against Soil Erosion.
3. Use Sustainable Flowers, Shrubs, and Trees.
4. Keep a Watchful Eye on Your Trees.
5. Keep Storm Drains Clear.
6. Maintain Parking Lots and Walkways.

In many locations, especially in the tropics, La Niña (or cold episodes) produces roughly the opposite climate variations from El Niño. For instance, parts of Australia and Indonesia are prone to drought during El Niño, but are typically wetter than normal during La Niña.

If El Niño has a strong presence, or makes Pacific waters warmer than usual, it increases the amount of “wind shear” across the the Atlantic basin. Wind shear is bad for hurricanes, and tropical storm production. It disrupts necessary conditions for tropical storms to form.

El Niño refers to the above-average sea-surface temperatures that periodically develop across the east-central equatorial Pacific. La Niña refers to the periodic cooling of sea-surface temperatures across the east-central equatorial Pacific. It represents the cold phase of the ENSO cycle.

A La Nina usually means a more active season with more and perhaps stronger storms. An El Nino means fewer, weaker storms. An El Nino means more strong crosswinds that can decapitate storms, but a La Nina means fewer, allowing storms to grow.

In the tropical Pacific Ocean, El Niños are detected by many methods, including in situ observing systems (moored buoys, drifting buoys, sea level analysis, and XBTs) and satellites.

What technology is used to detect, monitor, and predict El Ni�o and La Ni�a events?

• Satellites provide data on tropical rainfall, wind, and ocean temperature patterns, as well as changes in conditions for hurricane formation.
• Ocean buoys help to monitor sea-surface and upper ocean temperatures.

Scientists collect data about El Niño and La Niña using a number of technologies. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), for instance, operates a network of buoys which measure sea-surface temperature, air temperature, currents, winds, and humidity.

The 2020-2021 La Niña event has concluded, according to both oceanic and atmospheric indicators. The sea surface temperature anomalies in the central/eastern-central equatorial Pacific reached peak magnitude during October-November 2020.

A strong La Niña is defined as having sea surface temperatures at least 1.5 degrees Celsius colder than average.

Where El Niño is wet, La Niña is dry. While El Niño conditions and their seasonal impacts look very different from normal, La Niña conditions often bring winters that are typical — only more so.

La Niña strengthened over October, with both the tropical Pacific Ocean and the atmosphere clearly reflecting La Niña conditions. Forecasters estimate at least a 95% chance La Niña will last through the winter, with a 65% chance of it hanging on through the spring.

La Niña is a weather pattern that occurs in the Pacific Ocean. In this pattern, strong winds blow warm water at the ocean’s surface from South America to Indonesia. As the warm water moves west, cold water from the deep rises up to the surface. This cold water ends up on the coast of South America.

La Niña is characterized by unusually cold ocean temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific, compared to El Niño, which is characterized by unusually warm ocean temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific.

Recent years when La Niña Modoki events occurred include 1973–1974, 1975–1976, 1983–1984, 1988–1989, 1998–1999, 2000–2001, 2008–2009, 2010–2011, and 2016–2017. The recent discovery of ENSO Modoki has some scientists believing it to be linked to global warming. However, comprehensive satellite data go back only to 1979.

La Niña means Little Girl in Spanish. La Niña is also sometimes called El Viejo, anti-El Niño, or simply “a cold event.” La Niña has the opposite effect of El Niño. During La Niña winters, the South sees warmer and drier conditions than usual.

While a masculine El Niño is strong and powerful, his female companion La Niña is destructive but dependent. El Niño is a global phenomenon–through teleconnections El Niño has an impact on the weather across the world.

Stay inside a house or building during heavy rains. Avoid wading and taking baths in floodwaters. When a flood advisory is issued, residents in low lying areas should seek for higher grounds. Avoid crossing low-lying areas and bridges during evacuation.

El Niño refers to the above-average sea-surface temperatures that periodically develop across the east-central equatorial Pacific. It represents the warm phase of the ENSO cycle. La Niña refers to the periodic cooling of sea-surface temperatures across the east-central equatorial Pacific.

Although La Niña can sometimes persist for two years, seasonal forecasting agencies, such as the Bureau of Meteorology, are predicting neutral conditions for the rest of the year and next summer.

El Niño and La Niña affect not only ocean temperatures, but also how much it rains on land. Depending on which cycle occurs (and when), this can mean either droughts or flooding. Typically, El Niño and its warm waters are associated with drought, while La Niña is linked to increased flooding.

During an El Niño event, the surface of the tropical Pacific Ocean gets warmer than usual, particularly at the equator and along the coasts of South and Central America. Warm oceans lead to low pressure systems in the atmosphere above, which in turn leads to a lot of rain for the western coasts of the Americas.

Resource Situation Papua New Guinea (PNG) has been suffering from drought and frost caused by the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon since mid-2015. These events have seriously disrupted food production and livelihoods and led to widespread food and water shortages.

On the other hand, in the United States, El Niño typically brings wet weather to California (benefiting lime, almond, and avocado crops, among others), warmer winters in the Northeast, increased rainfall in the South, diminished tornado activity in the Midwest, and a decrease in the number of hurricanes that hit the …

Wanders: “The stronger the El Niño signal, the less water is available in the region. These lower discharges also have a direct influence on water storage levels in the reservoirs. If there is a continuous shortage of water feeding the reservoirs, this will inevitably lead to water shortages and thus drought.

The first recorded El Niño that originated in the central Pacific and moved toward the east was in 1986. Recent Central Pacific El Niños happened in 1986–87, 1991–92, 1994–95, 2002–03, 2004–05 and 2009–10. Furthermore, there were “Modoki” events in 1957–59, 1963–64, 1965–66, 1968–70, 1977–78 and 1979–80.

1997-‘

El Niño is associated with death and disease, most of which result from weather-related disasters such as floods and droughts. In 1997 Central Ecuador and Peru suffered rainfall more than 10 times normal, which caused flooding, extensive erosion and mudslides with loss of lives, destruction of homes and food supplies.

During an El Niño event, the surface waters in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean become significantly warmer than usual. It also reduces the upwelling of cooler, nutrient-rich waters from the deep—shutting down or reversing ocean currents along the equator and along the west coast of South and Central America.

every 3 to 5 years

The La Niña conditions that characterised the late part of 2020 and early 2021 have abated, with the majority of forecasts for El Niño/La Niña suggesting that neutral conditions will persist for the remainder of 2021.

During an El Niño event, sea surface temperatures across the Pacific can warm by 1–3°F or more for anything between a few months to two years. El Niño impacts weather systems around the globe, triggering predictable disruptions in temperature, rainfall and winds.