However, when offenders viewed the law in general terms, no deterrent effect existed. That is, when the question asked if offenders thought the “three strikes law” would stop them or someone else from committing a serious or violent crime, most offenders said no.

Experiential effect:the extent to which previous experience affects individuals’ perceptions of how severe criminal punishments will be when deciding whether or not to offend again.

Deterrence theory works on these three key elements: certainty, celerity, and severity, in incremental steps.

There are two main goals of deterrence theory. Individual deterrence is the aim of punishment to discourage the offender from criminal acts in the future. The belief is that when punished, offenders recognise the unpleasant consequences of their actions on themselves and will change their behaviour accordingly.

To illustrate, excessive fines, lengthy incarceration, wretched prison conditions and harsh treatment by guards can all serve the purposes of deterrence.

One problem with deterrence theory is that it assumes that human beings are rational actors who consider the consequences of their behavior before deciding to commit a crime; however, this is often not the case.

Strategic Variables. Perfect deterrence theory is a general theory of conflict initiation and resolution. In perfect deterrence theory, the cost of conflict is, nonetheless, a critical strategic variable. Its value relative to other variables determines both the capability and the credibility of a deterrent threat.

1. The certainty of being caught is a vastly more powerful deterrent than the punishment. Research shows clearly that the chance of being caught is a vastly more effective deterrent than even draconian punishment.

Number of nuclear warheads worldwide as of January 2020

Israel. Israel is widely believed to have been the sixth country in the world to develop nuclear weapons, but it has not acknowledged its nuclear forces. Israel is not a party to the NPT.

The Argentine government agreed to sell Israel yellowcake (uranium oxide). Between 1963 and 1966, about 90 tons of yellowcake were allegedly shipped to Israel from Argentina in secret. By 1965 the Israeli reprocessing plant was completed and ready to convert the reactor’s fuel rods into weapons grade plutonium.

Israel has not publicly conducted a nuclear test, does not admit or deny having nuclear weapons, and states that it will not be the first to introduce nuclear weapons in the Middle East. Nevertheless, Israel is universally believed to possess nuclear arms, although it is unclear exactly how many.